{"id":6763,"date":"2026-11-11T10:08:03","date_gmt":"2026-11-11T09:08:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/szineserzsebetvaros.hu\/kilenc-ev-alatt-kellene-megfelezni-a-fosszilis-kibocsatast\/"},"modified":"2026-11-11T10:08:07","modified_gmt":"2026-11-11T09:08:07","slug":"fossil-fuel-emissions-should-be-cut-in-half-within-nine-years","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/szineserzsebetvaros.hu\/en\/kilenc-ev-alatt-kellene-megfelezni-a-fosszilis-kibocsatast\/","title":{"rendered":"Fossil fuel emissions would need to be cut in half within nine years"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"szev-en\" data-no-translation>\nPreparatory events for the UN\u2019s annual climate conference began in Antalya, Turkey, on Monday, with national leaders arriving for COP31 from Wednesday. Phasing out fossil fuels is one of the central issues at the talks, yet a wide gap remains between the action required and the political willingness to take it, HVG reported.<\/p>\n<p>The Berlin-based Climate Analytics research institute released a new report to coincide with the summit. Its calculations indicate that the global average temperature will inevitably exceed the Paris Agreement threshold of 1.5\u00b0C above pre-industrial levels.<\/p>\n<p>Bill Hare, the institute\u2019s chief executive, describes this as an \u201covershoot\u201d. He said the breach was now physically unavoidable, but political decisions would determine how far temperatures rise and how long it takes to bring warming back below 1.5\u00b0C.<\/p>\n<h2>The 1.7\u00b0C pathway<\/h2>\n<p>According to the report, rapidly phasing out fossil energy and sharply reducing methane emissions could still limit peak warming to around 1.7\u00b0C. Temperatures could reach that level in the 2070s before the increase falls to 1.2\u20131.3\u00b0C by 2100.<\/p>\n<p>Achieving this would require fossil fuel-related carbon dioxide emissions to fall to roughly half their current level by 2035. Fossil energy would need to be replaced in electricity generation, transport, buildings and industry. Energy efficiency would also have to improve so that demand itself declines.<\/p>\n<p>Methane emissions would need to fall substantially in the energy, waste and agricultural sectors. The pathway also relies on ending deforestation, restoring natural ecosystems and expanding technologies that remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.<\/p>\n<p>Marcia Rocha, the report\u2019s coordinator, said nearly all the necessary tools and technologies were already available. In her view, clean alternatives tend to be affordable and safe, while also offering a pragmatic response to geopolitical uncertainty.<\/p>\n<h2>Every tenth of a degree matters<\/h2>\n<p>The difference between 1.5\u00b0C and 1.7\u00b0C may look small, but its consequences can be measured. Climate Analytics estimates that a third more people would be exposed to heatwaves at 1.7\u00b0C than at 1.5\u00b0C. If warming reached 1.8\u00b0C, the number affected could rise by another 10 per cent.<\/p>\n<p>Each additional tenth of a degree increases the risks from extreme weather, rising sea levels and major tipping points in the Earth\u2019s systems. If temperatures could be brought rapidly back from a 1.7\u00b0C peak to 1.5\u00b0C, the report says there would still be a chance of avoiding the loss of shallow-water coral reefs, the melting of the West Antarctic ice sheet, changes to Atlantic Ocean circulation and the decline of the Amazon rainforest.<\/p>\n<h2>Emissions are still rising<\/h2>\n<p>A recent global carbon budget cited by HVG suggests that fossil fuel emissions could fall by 0.4 per cent this year, after increasing by 1.2 per cent last year. Total carbon dioxide emissions caused by human activity, including those resulting from land use, could nevertheless continue to rise.<\/p>\n<p>The preliminary estimate for this year is 43.8 billion tonnes. That would be 500 million tonnes, or 1.15 per cent, above last year\u2019s figure of 43.3 billion tonnes.<\/p>\n<p>If current trends continue unchanged, human-caused warming could reach 2.6\u00b0C by 2100. Even if today\u2019s most ambitious emissions-reduction pledges are fulfilled, the increase is still projected to be around 2\u00b0C. Global warming had already reached 1.37\u00b0C last year.<\/p>\n<p class=\"szev-forras\">Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/hvg.hu\/zhvg\/20261111_globalis-felmelegedes-cop31-ensz-klimacsucs-1-5-fok-1-7-fok-kibocsatas-csokkentes\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">HVG<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>World leaders gathering in Antalya face a stark question: how much further will the planet be allowed to warm? A new analysis says a temporary breach of the Paris climate target is now unavoidable, but the difference between warming of 1.7\u00b0C and 2.6\u00b0C remains enormous.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":6765,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"szev_managed":"1","szev_hu_ok":"1","szev_en_ok":"1","szev_en_title":"Fossil fuel emissions would need to halve within nine years","szev_en_lead":"World leaders gathering in Antalya face a stark question: how much further will the planet be allowed to warm? A new analysis says a temporary breach of the Paris climate target is now unavoidable, but the difference between warming of 1.7\u00b0C and 2.6\u00b0C remains enormous.","szev_en_body":"Preparatory events for the UN\u2019s annual climate conference began in Antalya, Turkey, on Monday, with national leaders arriving for COP31 from Wednesday. Phasing out fossil fuels is one of the central issues at the talks, yet a wide gap remains between the action required and the political willingness to take it, HVG reported.\r\n\r\nThe Berlin-based Climate Analytics research institute released a new report to coincide with the summit. Its calculations indicate that the global average temperature will inevitably exceed the Paris Agreement threshold of 1.5\u00b0C above pre-industrial levels.\r\n\r\nBill Hare, the institute\u2019s chief executive, describes this as an \u201covershoot\u201d. He said the breach was now physically unavoidable, but political decisions would determine how far temperatures rise and how long it takes to bring warming back below 1.5\u00b0C.\r\n\r\n## The 1.7\u00b0C pathway\r\n\r\nAccording to the report, rapidly phasing out fossil energy and sharply reducing methane emissions could still limit peak warming to around 1.7\u00b0C. Temperatures could reach that level in the 2070s before the increase falls to 1.2\u20131.3\u00b0C by 2100.\r\n\r\nAchieving this would require fossil fuel-related carbon dioxide emissions to fall to roughly half their current level by 2035. Fossil energy would need to be replaced in electricity generation, transport, buildings and industry. Energy efficiency would also have to improve so that demand itself declines.\r\n\r\nMethane emissions would need to fall substantially in the energy, waste and agricultural sectors. The pathway also relies on ending deforestation, restoring natural ecosystems and expanding technologies that remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.\r\n\r\nMarcia Rocha, the report\u2019s coordinator, said nearly all the necessary tools and technologies were already available. In her view, clean alternatives tend to be affordable and safe, while also offering a pragmatic response to geopolitical uncertainty.\r\n\r\n## Every tenth of a degree matters\r\n\r\nThe difference between 1.5\u00b0C and 1.7\u00b0C may look small, but its consequences can be measured. Climate Analytics estimates that a third more people would be exposed to heatwaves at 1.7\u00b0C than at 1.5\u00b0C. If warming reached 1.8\u00b0C, the number affected could rise by another 10 per cent.\r\n\r\nEach additional tenth of a degree increases the risks from extreme weather, rising sea levels and major tipping points in the Earth\u2019s systems. If temperatures could be brought rapidly back from a 1.7\u00b0C peak to 1.5\u00b0C, the report says there would still be a chance of avoiding the loss of shallow-water coral reefs, the melting of the West Antarctic ice sheet, changes to Atlantic Ocean circulation and the decline of the Amazon rainforest.\r\n\r\n## Emissions are still rising\r\n\r\nA recent global carbon budget cited by HVG suggests that fossil fuel emissions could fall by 0.4 per cent this year, after increasing by 1.2 per cent last year. Total carbon dioxide emissions caused by human activity, including those resulting from land use, could nevertheless continue to rise.\r\n\r\nThe preliminary estimate for this year is 43.8 billion tonnes. That would be 500 million tonnes, or 1.15 per cent, above last year\u2019s figure of 43.3 billion tonnes.\r\n\r\nIf current trends continue unchanged, human-caused warming could reach 2.6\u00b0C by 2100. Even if today\u2019s most ambitious emissions-reduction pledges are fulfilled, the increase is still projected to be around 2\u00b0C. Global warming had already reached 1.37\u00b0C last year.","szev_gallery":"","szev_source_name":"HVG","szev_source_url":"https:\/\/hvg.hu\/zhvg\/20261111_globalis-felmelegedes-cop31-ensz-klimacsucs-1-5-fok-1-7-fok-kibocsatas-csokkentes","szev_video":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6763","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-zold-ugyek"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.8 (Yoast SEO v28.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Kilenc \u00e9v alatt kellene megfelezni a fosszilis kibocs\u00e1t\u00e1st &#8211; Sz\u00ednes Erzs\u00e9betv\u00e1ros<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Antaly\u00e1ban a vil\u00e1g vezet\u0151i arr\u00f3l t\u00e1rgyalnak, meddig engedj\u00fck melegedni a bolyg\u00f3t. 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