{"id":6751,"date":"2026-11-11T10:02:19","date_gmt":"2026-11-11T09:02:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/szineserzsebetvaros.hu\/a-kasszanal-johet-az-inflacio-kovetkezo-forduloja\/"},"modified":"2026-11-11T10:02:23","modified_gmt":"2026-11-11T09:02:23","slug":"the-next-wave-of-inflation-could-hit-the-cash-register","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/szineserzsebetvaros.hu\/en\/a-kasszanal-johet-az-inflacio-kovetkezo-forduloja\/","title":{"rendered":"The next surge in inflation may be felt at the checkout"},"content":{"rendered":"
\nA broad wave of price rises has yet to emerge in everyday shopping, though some frequently bought foods have already become more expensive. Higher fuel prices also pushed Hungary\u2019s national inflation rate upwards in October.<\/p>\n

According to figures from the Hungarian Central Statistical Office (KSH) cited by Vil\u00e1ggazdas\u00e1g, consumer prices were 2 per cent higher in October than a year earlier. They rose by 0.4 per cent compared with September, when annual inflation had stood at 1.6 per cent.<\/p>\n

The Ministry of Finance has not substantially changed its forecast for average inflation this year. Finance Minister Andr\u00e1s K\u00e1rm\u00e1n said Hungary\u2019s rate remained favourable by EU standards and attributed the October increase mainly to external developments in energy markets.<\/p>\n

A mixed picture in food shops<\/h2>\n

Food prices were, on average, 1.1 per cent lower in October than a year earlier. Excluding catering services, the annual decline was 4.1 per cent. Month on month, however, food became 0.2 per cent more expensive.<\/p>\n

The figures vary considerably between individual products. Potato prices rose by 1.9 per cent in one month and by 14 per cent over the year. Eggs became 1.6 per cent more expensive than in September, while fresh vegetables rose by 1.2 per cent. Cooking oil cost 6.2 per cent more than a year earlier.<\/p>\n

The full impact of the drought may not yet be visible on shop labels. Crop losses and more expensive animal feed could filter through later, alongside higher costs in food processing. Rising feed costs may eventually affect the prices of meat, dairy products and eggs.<\/p>\n

The extent to which shoppers feel these pressures will also depend on international crop prices, imports and competition between retailers. Experts cited by Vil\u00e1ggazdas\u00e1g said the disinflationary effect of the earlier strengthening of the forint may also be fading.<\/p>\n

Higher tobacco tax and the future of margin caps<\/h2>\n

Excise duty on tobacco products increased in November. The effect on retail prices will depend on how much of the extra cost manufacturers and shops pass on to customers.<\/p>\n

The combined category of alcoholic drinks and tobacco products was 3.2 per cent more expensive in October than a year earlier. That figure could not yet include the November tax rise. Orsolya Nyeste, chief analyst at Erste Bank, said the tax change, less favourable base effects and a gradual rise in food prices could all lift inflation in the final months of the year. G\u00e1bor Reg\u0151s, chief economist at Gr\u00e1nit Alapkezel\u0151, expects the tobacco tax to add several tenths of a percentage point, with the effect appearing gradually.<\/p>\n

Another unresolved issue is the future of the margin caps covering food and drugstore products. Vil\u00e1ggazdas\u00e1g reported that Hungary\u2019s Tisza government submitted legislation at the end of October to remove the restrictions. The government argued that inflation had normalised and the stronger forint had created favourable conditions for ending the measure.<\/p>\n

Removing the caps would not automatically make every affected product more expensive. It would, however, eliminate a restriction that has directly limited price increases.<\/p>\n

Views on the likely outcome differ. Oliv\u00e9r Horthay warned that the change could bring further price rises and strengthen the bargaining power of large retail chains. Deputy State Secretary Tam\u00e1s Koz\u00e1k took a different view, arguing that removal of the caps could encourage competition, create more scope for special offers and benefit consumers over the longer term. Reg\u0151s said the precise effect on inflation was difficult to predict and that a new price level would probably develop gradually.<\/p>\n

Any rise in the cost of staple foods could weigh more heavily on lower-income households, which spend a larger share of their budgets on these products.<\/p>\n

ING expects inflation to accelerate in 2027<\/h2>\n

ING analysts P\u00e9ter Virov\u00e1cz and Zolt\u00e1n Homolya expect inflation to reach 3 per cent by the end of the year and approach 4 per cent in July 2027. The bank forecasts average inflation of 1.9 per cent for 2026 and 3.4 per cent for 2027.<\/p>\n

Their analysis does not currently point to a general repricing wave. Companies have been more restrained than before in passing higher costs on to customers, though that could change in early 2027.<\/p>\n

Many businesses renew their energy supply contracts towards the end of the year or at the beginning of the next one. Higher gas and electricity prices may therefore feed into production costs with a delay. If this coincides with the effects of drought and the end of retail margin restrictions, households could encounter price pressure from several directions at the checkout.<\/p>\n

Source: Vil\u00e1ggazdas\u00e1g<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Inflation in Hungary remained subdued in October, but several uncertainties are building behind the prices seen in shops. The delayed effects of drought, higher excise duty on tobacco and the planned removal of retail margin caps could all feed into household spending over the coming months.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":6753,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"szev_managed":"1","szev_hu_ok":"0","szev_en_ok":"1","szev_en_title":"The next turn in inflation may show up at the checkout","szev_en_lead":"Inflation in Hungary remained subdued in October, but several uncertainties are building behind the prices seen in shops. The delayed effects of drought, higher excise duty on tobacco and the planned removal of retail margin caps could all feed into household spending over the coming months.","szev_en_body":"A broad wave of price rises has yet to emerge in everyday shopping, though some frequently bought foods have already become more expensive. Higher fuel prices also pushed Hungary\u2019s national inflation rate upwards in October.\r\n\r\nAccording to figures from the Hungarian Central Statistical Office (KSH) cited by Vil\u00e1ggazdas\u00e1g, consumer prices were 2 per cent higher in October than a year earlier. They rose by 0.4 per cent compared with September, when annual inflation had stood at 1.6 per cent.\r\n\r\nThe Ministry of Finance has not substantially changed its forecast for average inflation this year. Finance Minister Andr\u00e1s K\u00e1rm\u00e1n said Hungary\u2019s rate remained favourable by EU standards and attributed the October increase mainly to external developments in energy markets.\r\n\r\n## A mixed picture in food shops\r\n\r\nFood prices were, on average, 1.1 per cent lower in October than a year earlier. Excluding catering services, the annual decline was 4.1 per cent. Month on month, however, food became 0.2 per cent more expensive.\r\n\r\nThe figures vary considerably between individual products. Potato prices rose by 1.9 per cent in one month and by 14 per cent over the year. Eggs became 1.6 per cent more expensive than in September, while fresh vegetables rose by 1.2 per cent. Cooking oil cost 6.2 per cent more than a year earlier.\r\n\r\nThe full impact of the drought may not yet be visible on shop labels. Crop losses and more expensive animal feed could filter through later, alongside higher costs in food processing. Rising feed costs may eventually affect the prices of meat, dairy products and eggs.\r\n\r\nThe extent to which shoppers feel these pressures will also depend on international crop prices, imports and competition between retailers. Experts cited by Vil\u00e1ggazdas\u00e1g said the disinflationary effect of the earlier strengthening of the forint may also be fading.\r\n\r\n## Higher tobacco tax and the future of margin caps\r\n\r\nExcise duty on tobacco products increased in November. The effect on retail prices will depend on how much of the extra cost manufacturers and shops pass on to customers.\r\n\r\nThe combined category of alcoholic drinks and tobacco products was 3.2 per cent more expensive in October than a year earlier. That figure could not yet include the November tax rise. Orsolya Nyeste, chief analyst at Erste Bank, said the tax change, less favourable base effects and a gradual rise in food prices could all lift inflation in the final months of the year. G\u00e1bor Reg\u0151s, chief economist at Gr\u00e1nit Alapkezel\u0151, expects the tobacco tax to add several tenths of a percentage point, with the effect appearing gradually.\r\n\r\nAnother unresolved issue is the future of the margin caps covering food and drugstore products. Vil\u00e1ggazdas\u00e1g reported that Hungary\u2019s Tisza government submitted legislation at the end of October to remove the restrictions. The government argued that inflation had normalised and the stronger forint had created favourable conditions for ending the measure.\r\n\r\nRemoving the caps would not automatically make every affected product more expensive. It would, however, eliminate a restriction that has directly limited price increases.\r\n\r\nViews on the likely outcome differ. Oliv\u00e9r Horthay warned that the change could bring further price rises and strengthen the bargaining power of large retail chains. Deputy State Secretary Tam\u00e1s Koz\u00e1k took a different view, arguing that removal of the caps could encourage competition, create more scope for special offers and benefit consumers over the longer term. Reg\u0151s said the precise effect on inflation was difficult to predict and that a new price level would probably develop gradually.\r\n\r\nAny rise in the cost of staple foods could weigh more heavily on lower-income households, which spend a larger share of their budgets on these products.\r\n\r\n## ING expects inflation to accelerate in 2027\r\n\r\nING analysts P\u00e9ter Virov\u00e1cz and Zolt\u00e1n Homolya expect inflation to reach 3 per cent by the end of the year and approach 4 per cent in July 2027. The bank forecasts average inflation of 1.9 per cent for 2026 and 3.4 per cent for 2027.\r\n\r\nTheir analysis does not currently point to a general repricing wave. Companies have been more restrained than before in passing higher costs on to customers, though that could change in early 2027.\r\n\r\nMany businesses renew their energy supply contracts towards the end of the year or at the beginning of the next one. Higher gas and electricity prices may therefore feed into production costs with a delay. If this coincides with the effects of drought and the end of retail margin restrictions, households could encounter price pressure from several directions at the checkout.","szev_gallery":"","szev_source_name":"Vil\u00e1ggazdas\u00e1g","szev_source_url":"https:\/\/www.vg.hu\/vilaggazdasag-magyar-gazdasag\/2026\/11\/inflacio-magyar-gazdasag-aszaly-varga-mihaly-arresstop?utm_source=hirstart&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=hiraggregator","szev_video":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[39],"tags":[37],"class_list":["post-6751","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-kozelet","tag-fo-hir"],"yoast_head":"\nA kassz\u00e1n\u00e1l j\u00f6het az infl\u00e1ci\u00f3 k\u00f6vetkez\u0151 fordul\u00f3ja – Sz\u00ednes Erzs\u00e9betv\u00e1ros<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Okt\u00f3berben m\u00e9g visszafogott maradt a magyarorsz\u00e1gi infl\u00e1ci\u00f3, a bolti \u00e1rak m\u00f6g\u00f6tt azonban m\u00e1r l\u00e1tszanak a k\u00f6vetkez\u0151 h\u00f3napok bizonytalans\u00e1gai. Az asz\u00e1ly k\u00e9sleltetett hat\u00e1sa, a doh\u00e1nyterm\u00e9kek ad\u00f3emel\u00e9se \u00e9s az \u00e1rr\u00e9sstop tervezett megsz\u00fcntet\u00e9se is megjelenhet a h\u00e1ztart\u00e1sok kiad\u00e1saiban.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/szineserzsebetvaros.hu\/en\/the-next-wave-of-inflation-could-hit-the-cash-register\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"A kassz\u00e1n\u00e1l j\u00f6het az infl\u00e1ci\u00f3 k\u00f6vetkez\u0151 fordul\u00f3ja\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Okt\u00f3berben m\u00e9g visszafogott maradt a magyarorsz\u00e1gi infl\u00e1ci\u00f3, a bolti \u00e1rak m\u00f6g\u00f6tt azonban m\u00e1r l\u00e1tszanak a k\u00f6vetkez\u0151 h\u00f3napok bizonytalans\u00e1gai. 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